China 2049 by David Dollar

Author:David Dollar
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2018.

In light of such conflicting assessments, this chapter aims to provide some preliminary answers to the following questions: What effects will the adoption of AI by industry have on China’s employment market? Can AI help solve China’s aging problems and the gradual diminishing of the population dividend, or might it instead accelerate job market polarization and amplify income inequality? To answer the first question, we calculated the actual job substitution probability of AI in 2049 using the theoretical substitution probability and offer some predictions about the adoption of AI. Using the substitution probability, we examined the effects of AI on different sectors of the labor force as a step toward evaluating whether, in the next thirty years, China’s employment market can adjust to the structural changes brought about by AI-related technology. The regional migration of jobs and job movement to different sectors, genders, age groups, and industries are highlighted. The chapter concludes with policy suggestions devolving from projections of AI’s substitution effects on China’s employment market. We emphasize that government and policymakers should seek ways to maximize the positive effects of AI on the employment market, provide relief to those most negatively affected by the industrial embrace of AI, and support the labor force in transition.

FIGURE 9-2.   China Agricultural Bank, HR Structural Change 2016–2018

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